There is a mechanism for disabling target on a specific page load that will help us determine if target is causing this or not.
Try appending this to the url: "?mboxDisable=1" (or, use "&mboxDisable=1" if you already have a parameter).
This will disable Target for that specific page load. If you are seeing the Analytics click-tracking event fire under that condition, but you are not seeing it fire when Target is enabled, then we might need more details to determine whether this is a bug or not.
Hope this was helpful!