Hi Alistair,
I am sure you are counting unique clicks from you tracking logs, please double check if you are counting unique or all?
Consoldated logs count all clciks not just uniue clcoks. i.e.,Sum of all @totalClicks with a URL type equal to "Email click"(sum(Iif([url/@type]=1, @totalClicks, 0))).
Most of the time we see that count in tracking logs is higher than the consolidated tracking logs this may have happened because of numerous reasons, such as automatic workflow to update this schema is behind the tracking logs by 5 minutes or it was failed or was not successful because of a system restart, etc.
To fix this, select the concerned delivery in the Adobe Campaign Explorer, right-click and choose Action>Recompute delivery and tracking indicators. Select the highlighted option, Click Next, then click Finish.

Regards,
Amit