Analysis Workspace - Forecast vs. Actual Comparison

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jeremyl59043873

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jeremyl59043873

jeremyl59043873

10-04-2018

A lot of times we as analyst are asked to calculate an incremental value of a change to a user experience.  I know Adobe has Target which is kind of this ideas bread and butter but I think it would be amazing if Workspace could support the following idea for programs that we don't run through Target

a comparison of Actual data to a projected forecast of data based on an inflection point.

I'm thinking a comparison tool that would allow an analyst to selected

- metric - event or calculated metric

- the base period start date --- say Jan 1 for example sake

- the start of the campaign or ux change -- say Feb 15 for example

- campaign end date ---  say March 15th for example or could also be set as 'on going', in which case the tool would use the end date of the panel

upon execution the tool would create two segments

one for Jan 1 to Feb 15 with actual data with a estimated 'forecast' (simply linear) spanning until March 15th

&

one for Jan 1 to March 15th with actual data

& a line chart should display the values of the two segments

of course the two lines would be the same from Jan 1 to Feb 15 but then would deviate based on the variance between Feb 16th and March 15th.

the freeform table should have all the data day by day so the user can also download the csv

the icing on the cake would be to calculate an average daily 'variance' between the actual and the forecasted value

I'm not a statistician but I'm sure this can explode pretty easy if you start going down the road of different types of test and control periods or different forecast solutions.  I was just looking for something simply that us non-statisticians could use to help make our day to day lives easier.

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Amigo1989

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Amigo1989

Amigo1989

25-03-2020

Hey Adobe,

 

Forecasting would be a great feature!;)

 

Would be nice, if there will be any possibility in future in Adobe Analytics to predict values. Actually i am comparing the page views from this month to last month. But because of the fact, this month is not already finished, i would like to predict values for upcoming Dates based on the Dates e.g. of the actual month. Is anything like this possible in Adobe Analytics? My idea is to Show it directly in the visualization in another Colour. Or it would be great at least to predict the sum of the page views for e.g a month (which is not finished) based on the existing values for a specific date range.

 

Thank youPrediction.JPG

 

 

 (bearbeitet)