Well, we made an interesting discovery after my last post. We were able to replicate one of the issues we're seeing.
Here is what we are seeing:
1. We submit our upcoming webinar form (ID 4248) on this page https://www.confluent.io/resources/online-talk/how-to-build-event-driven-microservices/ and the form fill comes through as expected in Marketo. Correct form/correct referrer.
2. On the thank you page, there is a link to our on-demand webinar page. We navigate to that page and pick one of the on-demand webinars to register for. When we get to the landing page for an on-demand webinar, we are presented with our on-demand webinar form (ID 3762) but it displays a custom message because I'm a known user. That page is: https://www.confluent.io/resources/online-talk/build-a-streaming-data-mesh/ and here is a screenshot of the form with the custom message:

3. If I select "Not you" and fill out the form manually, then the form submission comes through in Marketo as expected (correct form/correct referrer). However, if I just click "Submit", the filled out form activity in Marketo comes through with the wrong referrer. The form is correct, but the referrer is https://www.confluent.io/resources/online-talk/how-to-build-event-driven-microservices/ rather than https://www.confluent.io/resources/online-talk/build-a-streaming-data-mesh/.
Have you ever seen something like this happen when a custom message is displayed for a known user?
Anyway, our original interpretation of the situation was wrong. It doesn't appear that the wrong form is being submitted from the right URL--we now think that the right form is being submitted, but the referrer isn't being captured correctly. Our Web Dev team says that the information they are seeing in Segment confirms this new interpretation of the situation.
Important side note: to answer your earlier question, we DO have more than one form on the page. We actually have TEN 😑 I'm not involved with this initiative, so my understanding is limited, but we used to use Optimizely for form testing and I guess we needed to have all of the forms they potentially wanted to test listed as hidden forms. We are no longer using Optimizely, so our Web Dev team said they can remove these forms. I think the custom message for known users is the culprit, but... this definitely seemed relevant, so I thought I better provide an explanation for why we have SO many forms.
Thank you so much for any help you can offer!