Onboarding campaign issues

hi all, been a while, can't believe im reopening this can of worms, thought it was setup forever.

we've noticed that our onboarding program isnt firing for newly created leads. here's why: 

we're only sending the welcome email based on data value change: consentemailallowed.

so we're going back into test, but i still cannot get the following to trigger based on a new enquiry:

so essentially, we've not been onboarding leads properly, but why would the second not be triggering the first welcome email in the flow?

the emails are in there just for testing btw. and we will kep the existing campaign and just add this one in if we manage to find the right one for newly created leads.

any help much appreciated as always, will pick a best answer if i get one.

thanks in advance, Mike