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Case Study – Segment estimator and actual population have huge difference


Employee Advisor

Problem Statement: Segment Size estimator is showing 10 million audience whereas segment is showing 2 million counts only.

Impact: ABC Corp not able to activate audience to the true potential for their clients and potential revenue loss.

Expectation: The segment estimator should match with segment population.

Conclusion: The segment size estimator will include authenticated profiles and does not consider Profile Merge Rule, but actual segment population will follow PMR.

Please see below details for more clarity:

Segment-A total population (Actual) = 2,086,317

Segment-A real population (Actual) = 1,392,035

Current PMR = Last Auth + Profile link Device Graph (Authenticated + last 3 devices only)

But estimator will calculate all the authenticated profiles who could be part of the segment and it is not limited the devices to 3. Due to which we are seeing an increase in the estimated population.

Estimator's total = 10,947,828
Estimator's real = 2,193,438

More details can be found at : https://marketing.adobe.com/resources/help/en_US/aam/segment-builder-data.html

Additional information:

What is segment size estimator?


Location of segment size estimator.


Segment Estimator Population Vs Actual Segment Population.


How Profile Merge Rule affects Segment Size estimator population?

Segment Size Estimator does not consider Profile Merge Rules.

Segment size estimator helps in identifying the possible segment population at the time of setting segment rule.



  • Immediate estimates for real-time and total       population.
  • Base is historical data
  • Returns 95% confidence interval

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