I've been reading around your blogs and guidelines on anomaly detection and contribution analysis, and this looks very powerful. I'm keen to make sure we interpret this correctly and can explain the methodology to others. I was wondering if you could post or email some information around the stats side behind this.
If I understand correctly Anomaly detection is using Holts Winters Multiplicative, Holts Winters Additive and Holts Trend Corrected, is that right? If so could you please advise a source that explains these in a straight forward way. Also could you explain how Adobe applied this, especially. E.g is the seasonal factor a daily factor in this case ?
Likewise on contribution analysis, I believe this uses Pearsons Residual, is that correct ? Again is there a straight forward source I can read around? How does Adobe apply this ? In particular the contribution score , how should this be read, in the examples touched on how does a dimension item with only 1 bounce have a high contribution score? I can see it may have a significant move, from 0 to 1 but wouldn't the low number of bounces reduce its overall contribution score.
Very early days in looking at this so I may be interpreting completely wrong, any help greatly appreciated
Thanks Mark